تحلیلی بر آسیب‌پذیری شهر کرمانشاه در برابر خطر زلزله با تأکید بر رویکرد‌ تاب‌آوری

Introduction

The increase in urban population due to their unsustainable development as well as the irregular growth of cities and their unsupervised expansion will increase the exposure to natural hazards (Atrachali, 2016: 2). Natural disasters, which are a part of human life and their number and variety are increasing day by day, pose a great challenge to the sustainable development of human societies (Adger and Hodbod, 2014: 91‌). Earthquake is a natural phenomenon and cannot be predicted (Kahandawa et al, 2018: 2) and is one of the most catastrophic and destructive types of natural hazards. It has been discussed for a long time, especially in developing countries (‌Dong &Shan, 2013: 85). Earthquakes have affected human life for a long time due to the existence of complex connections in cities (Falahi and Jalali, 2013: 6), the crisis risk index of the United Nations Development Program in 2004 shows that From Armenia, Iran has the highest level of earthquake vulnerability among countries in the world, and 31 out of every 40 types of natural disasters have occurred in Iran (Rezaei et al., 2015: 610). In most parts of Iran, seismic activity is directly related to the activity of faults, and most seismicity has occurred along active faults, and most of the known seismic faults in Iran are along their It is more than 40 km and all of them are accompanied by devastating earthquakes with a magnitude of more than 7 on the Richter scale (Azadikhah, 2009: 193). At the global level, there have been significant changes in the attitude towards risk (Ziyari, 2018: 98). Much emphasis has been placed on resilience instead of vulnerability (Mayunga, 2007: 4). Resilience has been studied around the world in various societies prone to traumatic events, including earthquakes ( Kara ırmak, 2010: 19). There is a possibility of an earthquake, especially when the conditions for its occurrence exist, including the existence of various faults, the presence of several faults in Kermanshah and its surroundings indicates the risk of an earthquake, the inadequate access to some areas of the city, the post-earthquake relief operation faces a problem that if no action is taken to manage the earthquake crisis, this can lead to a human disaster (Kamrizadeh, 2016: 4). Considering that it is not possible to prevent the occurrence of an earthquake or the time of its occurrence cannot be predicted, but it is possible to provide solutions to deal with or reduce its vulnerability, these solutions increase initiatives and ideas. will be done against the city's resilience and resilience against earthquakes, so achieving the resilience and resilience of cities and citizens against the risk of earthquakes is one of the main goals. which should be taken into account in urban management, urban development plans, etc. This research deals with an analysis of the vulnerability of Kermanshah city to the risk of earthquakes with emphasis on the resilience approach.





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Methodology

Based on the purpose, the current research is part of applied research and based on the working method and nature, it is placed in the framework of descriptive-analytical research. The statistical population is the residents of Kermanshah city over 15 years old, and Cochran's formula was used to determine the sample size, and 385 people were selected as a statistical sample. The classification method has also been used to select the sample in the regions. Documentary methods and library studies were used to formulate the theoretical foundations of the research and to collect information from the questionnaire, which was used by Dr. Rezaei and Dr. Eshghi Chahar Borj). Cronbach's alpha coefficient was calculated as 0.80, which indicates the good reliability of the questionnaire. One-sample T-tests, Friedman and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to analyze the data.





Conclusion

Earthquake is a natural phenomenon and cannot be predicted and is one of the most catastrophic and destructive types of natural hazards. The existence of several faults in Kermanshah and its surroundings indicates the risk of earthquakes. Achieving the resilience and resilience of cities and citizens against the risk of earthquakes is one of the main goals. which should be considered in urban management, urban development plans, etc. This research deals with an analysis of the vulnerability of Kermanshah city against the risk of earthquakes with an emphasis on the resilience approach. 385 people were selected as a statistical sample. In order to collect information, a questionnaire (including three indicators of institutional background, institutional relations and institutional performance) was used. For data analysis, the collected data (Kruskal-Wallis, Friedman and TT sample tests) were used. To investigate the status of institutional indicators and ranking of the eight regions of Kermanshah city by components and whether there is a significant difference in the availability of components or not; Kruskal-Wallis test was used. The results show that there is a significant difference in thirteen components and there is no significant difference in five components. Friedman's test was used to rank the components of the institutional resilience index from the point of view of citizens. According to the results obtained from it; How much is the component index of your adherence to legal guidelines in order to prevent accidents caused by earthquakes during construction? How satisfied are you with the performance of the government and local institutions of the council and municipality in relation to the provision of educational services (brochures, brochures, etc.) regarding the safe use of household and workshop equipment? Also, in order to compare the average state of institutional resilience in Kermanshah city, a sample t-tech test was used, the results show. The two indicators of institutional base and institutional performance have an average higher than average and their significance level is less than 0.05. Also, the index of institutional relations is lower than the average level and its significance level is less than 0.05.

In the end, considering the not so good state of resilience in Kermanshah city, some suggestions are given to improve it:

- Informing people about compliance with laws and regulations during construction (earthquake-proof buildings)

- Financial and technical incentives for people to renovate or retrofit buildings

- Institutional planning for crisis management in case of possible earthquakes

- Holding crisis management courses and necessary trainings for proper and quick response in schools and other institutions to people

- Use of trained people in times of crisis

- Informing people about the existence of rescue groups.

Keyw‌ords

Vulnerability; Earthquake Risk; Resilience; Kermanshah City