Mapping and Assessing the Precipitation and Temperature Changes in Arasbaran Forest Ecosystem under Climate Change, NW of Iran

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه جنگلداریف دانشکده منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تبریز

2 پژوهشکده محیط زیست، جهاد دانشگاهی

چکیده

This study was conducted to perform the most parameters of weather data for current and future climate in the Arasbaran forest area including precipitation and temperature. The base climate data contained daily precipitation, minimum temperatures, and maximum temperatures parameters. The LARS-WG was used to simulation based on the historical climate data and data generating for future climate forecasting was evaluate. The model was evaluated after assessing the model ability in all four stations by comparing the monthly means and variances of observed and generated data in all stations. From the results, the study found that the precipitation level would increase in the study area. In the case of minimum and maximum temperatures, the minimum temperature would decrease 0.2-0.3 °C in Jolfa station and will increase 0.1-0.2 °C in Tabriz and 4.5-4.6 °C in Kaleybar stations. In addition, the maximum temperature would increase 0.1-0.2 °C at both in the study area. The distribution map of climatic parameters in the past and future showed that the high precipitation patterns of rain forecasting maps will be eliminated and increasing the minimum and maximum temperature and amount of radiation certified that the occurrence of global warming in this forest region will be inevitable.

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