تجزیه و تحلیل اثرات رشد اقتصادی بر میزان انتشار گازهای گلخانه‌ای در کشورهای منتخب

Reducing environmental pollution and achieving economic growth along with a clean environment have been some of the most important and challenging topics in recent decades and until now (Maghdisi and Golriz Rezaei, 2019). Therefore, it has attracted the attention of many researchers and policy-makers. In this regard, examining the economic dimensions of greenhouse gas emissions and their environmental effects, especially in the current situation where the volume of greenhouse gases is increasing, is important. This is despite the fact that the process of industrialization of societies has led to more and more intensive exploitation of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas in order to be used in the production process of various goods and services. In the last three decades, increasing the amount of carbon dioxide has been one of the most important issues in environmental economics and development. Carbon dioxide is the main greenhouse gas and one of the most important causes of global warming and climate change.
For this purpose, in the current research, the relationship between economic growth, population, and carbon dioxide emissions in different countries of the world, considering their income levels, was investigated using the panel data method in the period of 1991-2018.
This article examines the theoretical foundations and various theories in this field, some of the most important factors affecting carbon emissions, such as gross domestic product, population, and urbanization as a measure of environmental quality. Several studies have examined the direct relationship between energy consumption and economic growth from different aspects. Still, despite the studies conducted, this study analyzed the carbon emission in different countries and the factors affecting it theoretically. Is. In this regard, first, the theory of Kuznets Environmental Curve (EKC) was analyzed in a refined manner, and then the amount of population and urbanization and economic growth and their impact on the emission of greenhouse gases, especially carbon dioxide, were analyzed through perspectives and theory. Various things have been discussed.
The information and statistical sources used in this study are written documents, library, and electronic information. The data were extracted from the statistical information published on the World Bank website for all countries during the years 1991-2018. Based on the classification of countries by the World Bank through their income levels, the countries examined in this study are divided into five groups of countries with income levels (high-medium to high-low-medium to low) and according to the availability of all Their information has been determined. The countries of Iran, Pakistan, Philippines, Kenya, and Vietnam in the group of countries with medium to low-income levels; Argentina, Peru, Turkey, and Mexico in the group of middle to high-level countries; Spain, Australia, Italy, Japan, and Norway are in the group of high-income countries and finally, Togo, Chad, Congo, Liberia and Madagascar are in the category of the lowest income level.
The sustainable development of any society requires attention to the environment and its protection for future generations. In the meantime, the increase in greenhouse gas emissions, especially carbon dioxide gas, has caused concerns about the quality of the environment. From other aspects, economic growth as a stable factor and one of the most basic macroeconomic goals has always been the focus of planners. Therefore, the present study aims to investigate the relationship and effect of economic growth on the amount of carbon dioxide gas emissions in 4 groups of selected countries with different per capita income (high, medium to high, low, and medium to low) among 20 countries using data. Combined studies have been carried out during the years 1991-2018. For this purpose, Kao, Westerland, and Pedroni's co-integration test was first performed to confirm the co-integration relationship between the variables. Then Chow's test was used to confirm the panel data method, the test statistic was equal to 1.75 and the null hypothesis of this test showed that the panel data method is applicable. Next, Hausman's test was performed to compare fixed and random effects models. The Hausman test statistic was found to be 25/41 completely significant, so the model was confirmed in the fixed effects model. Finally, to investigate the effects of economic growth on the amount of greenhouse gas emissions in selected countries, the general and partial estimation of the regression panel model with fixed effects was used. The results of the regression model showed a positive relationship between carbon emissions and gross domestic product in the studied countries. The coefficient related to the variable of gross domestic production and its square were obtained at a significant level, and the positive and negative signs were evaluated according to Kuznet's theory. Therefore, the environmental hypothesis of Kuznets was confirmed in the mentioned countries and the results showing the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions were estimated as inverted U.
Obviously, in this study, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and population, urbanization rate, and gross domestic product can help policymakers in making the right decisions in dealing with environmental degradation in line with economic growth. Also, the results of the regression analysis showed: that all countries are located on the upward slope of the Kuznets environmental curve, and with the increase in income, the amount of carbon has increased on average for all countries; The slope of this curve has been assessed as increasing at low levels of income and decreasing at higher levels. Also, the results showed that there is a close correlation between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, population, and urbanization rate. However, due to changing technology and replacing fossil energies with new energy sources, this dependence can be reduced. Also, the partial estimation results of the regression model showed that with population decrease in countries with high and medium to high per capita income, the amount of released pollution has increased by -11-2.10 and -6.46-10-E respectively.
Obviously, in this study, the relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and population, urbanization rate, and gross domestic product can help policymakers in making the right decisions in dealing with environmental degradation in line with economic growth. Also, the results of the regression analysis showed: that all countries are located on the upward slope of the Kuznets environmental curve, and with the increase in income, the amount of carbon has increased on average for all countries; The slope of this curve has been assessed as increasing at low levels of income and decreasing at higher levels. Also, the results showed that there is a close correlation between carbon dioxide emissions, GDP, population, and urbanization rate. However, due to changing technology and replacing fossil energies with new energy sources, this dependence can be reduced.