تاثیر اقتصادی گرد و غبار بر درآمد کشاورزان شهرستان نیمروز

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان - دانشکده اقتصاد- گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی

2 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد

4 2. کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

چکیده

خشکسالی‌های اخیر و خشک شدن دریاچه هامون به همراه بادهای 120 روزه در سیستان موجب ایجاد طوفان‌های گرد و غبار در شهرستان نیمروز شده است و کشاورزان را با مشکلات عدیده‌ای درآمدی و معیشتی روبرو ساخته است. از این‌رو هدف تحقیق بررسی اثرات اقتصادی گرد و غبار بر درآمد کشاورزان شهرستان نیمروز با استفاده از الگوی لاجیت ترتیبی و داده‌های مقطع زمانی 318 کشاورز در سال 1399 با استفاده از نمونه‌گیری تصادفی می‌باشد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که گرد و غبار بر متغیرهای تولید محصولات کشاورزی، کیفیت محصولات کشاورزی، کمیت آب مورد نیاز و کاهش مراتع منطقه و به تبع آن کاهش درآمد کشاورزان تاثیر مثبت و معناداری داشته است یعنی گرد و غبار با کاهش یک واحد در هر یک از متغیرهای تولید محصولات کشاورزی، کیفیت محصولات کشاورزی، کمیت آب مورد نیاز و کاهش مراتع منطقه و ثابت بودن سایر متغیرها، احتمالا منجر به کاهش درآمد کشاورزان به ترتیب به میزان 016/0، 014/0، 062/0 و 11/0 خواهد شد و یا به عبارت دیگر با افزایش گرد و غبار و کاهش هر یک از متغیرهای فوق، وضعیت درآمدی کشاورزان شهرستان نیمروز بدتر خواهد شد. در حالی که گرد و غبار بر متغیرهای کیفیت و حاصلخیزی اراضی، سرمایه‌گذاری در بخش کشاورزی و هزینه سلامت و به تبع آن کاهش درآمد کشاورزان تاثیر معناداری نداشته است. در این راستا پیشنهاد می‌شود که محصولاتی در شهرستان نیمروز کشت شود که در تولید آن به آب کمتری نیاز داشته باشد و همچنین گرد و غبار کمترین تاثیر را بر تولید و کیفیت محصول داشته باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The economic impact of dust on the income of farmers in Nimroz city

نویسندگان [English]

  • mohammad norozian 1
  • shseyedmahdi Hoseyni 2
  • AMIR amdadras 3
  • fahime bazzi 4
1 University of Sistan and Baluchestan
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Sistan and Baluchestan University, Iran
3 3. استادیار، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
4 2. کارشناسی ارشد، دانشکده مدیریت و اقتصاد دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان
چکیده [English]

Recent droughts and the drying up of Lake Hamoon along with the 120-day winds in Sistan have caused dust storms in the city of Nimroz, farmers faced with income and livelihood problems. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the economic effects of dust on the income of farmers in Nimroz city using the order logit model and time section data of 203 farmers in 2020. The results show that dust has had a positive and significant effect on the variables of agricultural production, quality of agricultural products, the quantity of water required and reduction of regional pastures and consequently reduction of farmers' income that's mean dust with a decrease of one unit per one of the variables of agricultural production, quality of agricultural products, the quantity of water required and reduction of regional pastures and other variables are constant, probably lead to a decrease in farmers' incomes by 0.016, 0.014, 0.062 and 0.11, respectively. In other words, with the increase of dust and decrease of each of the above variables, the income situation of farmers in Nimroz city has worsened. While on the dust on the variables of land quality and fertility, investment in agriculture and health costs and consequently reduce farmers' incomes have not had a significant effect. In this regard, it is suggested that crops to be cultivated in Nimroz city that requires less water in production and also dust has the least impact on production and product quality.
Results and discussion
In this study, the effect of dust on the income of farmers in Nimroz city in the form of Likert scale has been discussed in five levels, but because a small number of farmers have chosen a very small option, the two levels were merged very little and the model Sequential logit is considered in four levels: low, medium, high and very high. In these models, first, the model is estimated, and then parallel regression tests are performed and if the statistics are not significant, parallel regression tests can be estimated, and also in this model the results of sequential logit coefficients. It is not interpretable and for the interpretations, the coefficients of the final effects at different levels must be calculated.
The results of the final effects for different levels of the impact of dust on the reduction of farmers' incomes in Nimroz city are presented. The results show that dust has a significant effect on the variables of agricultural production, quality of agricultural products, the quantity of water required, and reduction of rangelands in the region, while on the variables of land quality and fertility, investment in agriculture, and health costs. Has not. It can be said that the final effects explain the amount of change in the predicted probabilities for the effect of dust on the reduction of farmers' income per unit of change in a particular variable. The final effect of dust on agricultural production and consequently the reduction of farmers' incomes have been positive and significant. That is, dust by reducing one unit in agricultural production and other variables are constant, will probably lead to a decrease in farmers 'incomes by 0.016, or in other words, by increasing dust and reducing agricultural production, farmers' income status The city of Nimroz has deteriorated, which is in line with the research work of Sharifi et al. Dust has a positive and significant effect on the quality of agricultural products and assuming other variables are constant, the probability of reducing farmers' incomes will be 0.014.
Dust in various ways, including preventing the penetration of sunlight, incomplete pollination, inhibits photosynthesis and increases the amount of pest damage to the agricultural sector and has a negative impact on the production and quality of crops and gardens, and even leads to reduced rangelands. It becomes. This study investigates the economic effects of dust on farmers' incomes in Nimroz city using a sequential logit model. Its data were collected based on cluster sampling of 318 farmers in the city in the form of a questionnaire in 1399. The results of Brent and Wald statistics show that the ordinal logit model can be used to estimate the model and also the results of the final effects of the ordinal logit model show that dust on the variables of agricultural production, quality of agricultural products, The amount of water required and the reduction of rangelands in the region had a significant positive effect, while the variables of land quality and fertility, investment in agriculture and health costs did not have a significant effect. The final effect of dust on the production and quality of agricultural products and consequently the reduction of farmers' incomes have been positive and significant. That is, dust by reducing one unit in agricultural production and other variables are constant, will probably lead to a decrease in farmers' incomes by 0.016 and 0.014, or in other words, by increasing dust due to various biological problems. Incomplete pollination, reduced photosynthesis and lack of sunlight affect not only the production of agricultural products but also the quality of these products and consequently the competitiveness of farmers in the region and worsen the income situation of farmers in Nimroz. Therefore, in this regard, farmers in the region should be directed to produce products that have the least damage from dust, and the quality of these products is less affected by dust, and also the final effect of dust on the amount of water required for the sector. Agriculture and, consequently, the decrease in farmers' incomes have become positive and significant. In other words, the dust has a negative effect on the amount of water required for the agricultural sector and as a result, more water is needed for the agricultural sector and due to the lack of water resources in the region, there will be a decrease in farmers' incomes in Nimroz. Finally, the final effect of dust on the reduction of rangelands in the region is positive and significant, ie dust reduces the income of farmers by 0.11 by reducing one unit of change in the rangelands of the region and by keeping other variables constant. In other words, the dust has a negative and significant effect on the rangelands of the region, as a result of which, the income of farmers in Nimroz city has decreased.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "dust"
  • "order logit pattern"
  • "Farmers' income"
  • "Nimroz city