ارائه مدل تلفیقی Delphi-ANP برای ارزیابی مدیریت یکپارچه مناطق ساحلی شهرستان سیریک

Introduction
Integrated coastal zone management attempt to integrate the various policies affecting the coasts, as well as, gathering local and national stakeholders to raise awareness, support and implement these policies. The most important issue in the coasts management is the partial and sectoral organization and functions of stakeholders in the coasts. The long term goal of integrated coastal zone management is to balance the benefits of economic development and human use of coasts, protect, preservation and reconstruction of the coasts, minimize coastal damage, and earn benefits of accessing and public use of coasts.
‫‬There has not been done a comprehensive research that can coordinate the uses of development approach with conservation approach in the coasts of Sirik city with considering to the great capacities and potentials of coasts, as well as, the threatening and destructive factors in the Sirik city coastal areas, yet. Therefore, the main purpose of this study is to develop a model for evaluating the integrated coastal zone management on the Sirik coast using multi-criteria decision making techniques (MCDM). In present research, important criteria of protection and development were identified to establish integrated coastal zone management, and also we weighted these criteria and prioritized options and provided practical solutions for integrated coastal zone management target coasts.‬‬

Materials and methods
In order to collect information for this applied type research, which was conducted at the Sirik coasts in 2019-2020, the combined method of library studies and survey approach have been used through interviews and questionnaires. Then, integrated Delphi and analytic network process (ANP) model were used to analyze the findings and determine the appropriate evaluated criteria and prioritize them. In this regards, the integrated Delphi and ANP model consist of the following steps:
Step 1: Selection of the Delphi group and develop an evaluation model
Step 2: adjusting the interdependencies and perform pairwise comparisons among clusters or elements with ANP
Step 3: Developing a super matrix by ANP
According to the research framework, the proposed model for evaluating the implementation of integrated coastal zone management in the form of an integrated model was developed and implemented as Figure 1.


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Figure 1: Schematic diagram of the proposed model for evaluating integrated coastal zone managemen

Results
Step 1: Selection of the Delphi group and develop a model
The criteria considered in the evaluation of integrated coastal zone management in Sirik city including 4 important criteria: Environmental, economic, socio-cultural, and land usage. Also, after determining the criteria, the desired options were assessed and selected, then the decision-making team suggested three suitable options consist of Sirik, Kouhestak and Geroug to design the evaluation model.

Step 2: Setting the interdependencies and perform pairwise comparisons among clusters or elements by ANP
The strategic and fundamental part was formed at this stage of the research. In this stage, pairwise comparisons were performed. Since, there is only one cluster to assess the objective of the research, then there is no clusters comparison at this stage. But the comparisons of the elements within the clusters and options must be calculated (Table 1).

Table 1 - Pairwise comparison matrix of key criteria
Normalize Land use Sociocultural Economic Environmental Strategic goal
0.483 3 7 5 1 Environmental
0.172 1.3 3 1 Economic
0.094 1.5 1 Sociocultural
0.251 1 Land use
CR = 0/04

- The final pairwise comparisons were done among the studied options that the desired options of were Sirik, Kouhestak and Geroug.

Step 3: Developing a hyper matrix with ANP
All data within the pairwise comparison matrix were normalized, then calculated as the initial super matrix called unweighted matrix.
In the next step, the unweighted super matrix is multiplied by the normalized column, which resulting to the unweighted super matrix.
Then, the weighted matrix is powered to the extent that there is no difference between the successive elements of the super matrix with the power of K and the super matrix to the power of K+1 using the Super decisions software. At this stage a limited (limit) super matrix was obtained. In the achieved super matrix, all row numbers are equal. Based on this matrix, a score of 0.286 was obtained for Sirik and, in order to establish integrated coastal zone management based on defined criteria, the Sirik city was a superior option compared to other cities in the whole studied area.
In the final step, using the normalization of weights, to prioritize the three cities or options under review, the results of their review and evaluation are obtained in Table 2.
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Table 2 - Ranking matrix of options
Ranking Ideal Normal Total Alternatives
1 1.0000 0.5723 0.286 Sirik
2 0.4720 0.2710 0.135 Kohestak
3 0.2762 0.1567 0.079 Geroug




Discussions and conclusion
The objective of this study is to analyze and evaluate the implementation of integrated coastal zone management in the Sirik city. Hence, the combined Delphi and analytical network process model was used, which is a multi-criteria decision-making technique. In this study, after analyzing the evaluation criteria of integrated coastal zone management through Delphi method, the identified options were evaluated and prioritized based on key environmental, economic, socio-cultural and land use criteria using analytical network process method.
The result revealed that environmental criteria with a score of 0.483 and socio-cultural criteria with a score of 0.094 had the highest and lowest weight, respectively. Finally, considering the weight of the set of criteria as well as the weighting and ranking of the options, the city of Sirik was selected as the top option.
According to the result of analyses, to the integrated coastal zone management, and its evaluation based on the principles and criteria of environmental resource protection, the following suggestions are indicated:
 Identification of sensitive coastal zones for the protection and development of these areas as an approach to establish an integrated coastal zone management system;
 Preventing sectoral planning by different organizations to load various development projects in the coastal-marine ecosystem without considering the environmental requirements;
 Creating and strengthening a comprehensive plan for the protection and development of coastal environment in order to protect sensitive coastal-marine resources along with the development of environmentally friendly land uses for integrated coastal zone management;
 It is suggested that the researchers study other involved and effective issues to identify and evaluate the effective criteria on integrated coastal zone management, which be helpful for amelioration management of the studied coastal areas through the reported algorithm.