شناسایی مهمترین تغییرات اقلیمی موثر بر امنیت ملی ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد کرج

2 دانشجوی دکتری روابط بین الملل، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد کرج

10.22034/jess.2022.144658

چکیده

امروزه مسایل اقلیمی، امنیت جهان را تهدید می‌کند. امنیتی که در همه زمینه ها و برای همه انسان ها، امری لازم و حیاتی محسوب می شود. از همین‌رو هدف غایی این تحقیق، شناسایی عوامل مهم و موثر تغییرات آب‌و‌هوایی در امنیت ملی ایران است تا با شناسایی و دسته-بندی این عوامل، زمینه برای اقدامات اساسی آتی محیا گردد. تحقیق حاضر به لحاظ روش، توصیفی-تحلیلی و اکتشافی (به دلیل ماهیت شناسایی عوامل) و به لحاظ هدف از انجام آن، کاربردی است. داده‌های تحقیق از طریق 10 نفر از کارشناسان و به روش گلوله برفی جمع-آوری شده و از روش‌های مدلسازی ساختاری- تفسیری (ISM) و تحلیل MICMAC برای تحلیل آنها استفاده شده است. برابر یافته-های تحقیق از بین 18 عامل اولیه تغییرات اقلیمی موثر در امنیت بین‌الملل شناسایی شدند تعداد 13 موردشان از نظر کارشناسان با امنیت کشور مرتبط تر دانسته شده و از بین آنها هم، 4 عامل افزایش دما، کاهش بارندگی، خشکسالی و خشک شدن منابع آبی که دارای قدرت نفوذ بالا و وابستگی پایینی بودند به عنوان عوامل کلیدی تاثیرگذار بر امنیت کشور ایران شناسایی شدند. این عوامل مانند سنگ‌بنای ساختاری سیستم عمل می‌کنند و برای تغییر و تحول اساسی در عملکرد سیستم، باید در وهله اول روی آنها تاکید کرد. در تاکید این عوامل، نباید از سایر عامل غافل ماند. چراکه عوامل اقلیمی به صورت زنجیزه‌ای باهم در ارتباط هستند و کم توجهی به این مساله میتواند صدمات اقلیمی دیگری در پی داشته باشد و امنیت داخلی و خارجی را تهدید نماید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying the most important climate change affecting Iran's national security

نویسندگان [English]

  • Fakhreddin Soltani 1
  • morteza fallahnejad 2
  • Yadola Rashedi 2
1 Assistant Professor of International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Karaj Branch
2 PhD student in International Relations, Islamic Azad University, Karaj Branch
چکیده [English]

Abstract
Today, climate issues threaten the security of the world. Security that is necessary and vital in all fields and for all human beings. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to identify the important and effective factors of climate change in Iran's national security in order to identify and categorize these factors to provide the basis for future measures. The present research is applied in terms of method, descriptive-analytical and exploratory (due to the nature of identifying factors) and in terms of the purpose of doing it. The research data was collected by 10 experts using the snowball method and structural-interpretive modeling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis methods were used to analyze them. According to the research findings, among the first 18 factors of climate change affecting international security were identified, 13 of them are considered more related to national security by experts, and among them, 4 factors are temperature increase, decrease in rainfall, drought and drought. The emergence of water resources with high penetration power and low dependence were identified as key factors affecting Iran's security. These factors act as the structural cornerstone of the system and in order to fundamentally change the performance of the system, they must be emphasized in the first place. In emphasizing these factors, one should not neglect other factors. Because climatic factors are interconnected in a chain and a lack of attention to this issue can lead to other climatic damage and threaten internal and external security.

Introduction
Today, environmental concerns have become a serious security issue in international relations and have raised significant concerns for governments. As the environmental problems caused by climate change become more serious, this can be considered as an influential variable in domestic or international conflicts. Climate change disrupts not only natural habitats but also the social order of communities, increasing the likelihood of violent conflict, endangering international peace and security, and affecting environmental justice.
Today's security threats are inherently civilian and transnational in nature, spreading rapidly as a result of globalization and the expansion of global communications, threatening government institutions and civilian populations. Threats that are unpredictable and increase the mobility and expansion of people's activities, intensify their rapid spread and proliferation in the world. Also, the indirect effects of these matters can cause huge economic losses at the regional or global level. One of the main areas of these threats are environmental hazards and threats
Climate change, transboundary environmental erosion, resource depletion, natural disasters, water scarcity and reduced rainfall, drought and food shortages, intensification of storms and floods resulting from human scouring and global warming are all factors that link the environment. Life with security and politics. This is because environmental tensions in the form of erosion and destruction of the human living environment have led to violent social conflicts and increased security and political problems.
Given the above, it can be said that today, climate issues threaten world security. Security that is necessary and vital in all fields and for all human beings. As Akhavan Kazemi et al. (1398) have concluded that future climate change will have an undeniable impact on the national convergence of societies and peace and lasting security and security of the international system and the origin of new types of There will be conflicts. Therefore, the ultimate goal of this study is to identify the important and effective factors of climate change in Iran's national security in order to identify and categorize these factors to provide the basis for future measures.

Methodology
The present research is applied in terms of method, descriptive-analytical and exploratory (due to the nature of identifying factors) and in terms of the purpose of doing it. The method of data collection is the snowball method, in which10 university professors specializing in natural hazards and international relations were used (electronic questionnaire) and finally the data obtained from expert opinions in the form of content analysis method. Then, the factor comparison questionnaire was analyzed in the form of structural-interpretive modeling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis methods. These models and methods have their own steps that are presented in the research process.

Findings
One of the current research processes is content analysis of climate change factors that have a role in national security. In particular, 18 important factors were identified from research and documentary sources, 13 of which, according to experts, threaten the security of Iran more than the other 5.
Among the 13 final factors, the factors of decreasing rainfall, increasing temperature, drought and drying of water resources with high penetration rate have the most impact and reduction of agricultural production without penetration power points have the least impact and in contrast, desertification and reduction of agricultural production have the most impact. Are dependent on climate change.
Also, the results obtained from the classification of research variables showed that in the category of autonomous factors, soil erosion factors (X2), vegetation reduction (X3), freshwater deficiency (X4), land subsidence (X8), dust (X12) And Forest fires (X13) (factors that have weak penetration and dependence). In the category of dependent factors, there are factors that reduce agricultural production (X7) and desertification (X9) (factors that have high penetration, power and dependence, and in fact, any action on these factors will change other factors). In the category of linking factors, no factor has been observed (factors that have high penetration (stimulus) and high dependence) and in the category of independent (key) factors, temperature increase factors (X1), decrease in rainfall (X5), drought (X6 And drying of water resources (X11) (factors that have high penetration power and low dependence. These factors act as the structural cornerstone of the system and for a fundamental change in system performance, must be in place. First emphasized them).

Conclusion
Today, climate change is threatening world security with changes that can lead to internal and external wars and conflicts. Therefore, identifying these changes and their consequences in order to stabilize them and prevent their negative consequences is essential that this research has been done for this purpose. According to the research results, 4 factors of temperature increase, decrease in rainfall, drought and drying of water resources are considered as key factors affecting the security of Iran, the mentioned factors have been evident in recent years. Temperature changes, rainfall and drought and drying of fresh and salt water sources such as Lake Urmia and Zayandehrud, etc. are among the most important recent issues in the country that have caused insecurity (lack of agricultural water, increased dust, land subsidence and desertification). Speciation is a clear example of these effects, which in addition to internal protests, also had external protests). In emphasizing these factors, one should not neglect other factors. Because climatic factors are intertwined in such a way that rising temperatures increase evaporation and pave the way for drying up water resources and reducing fresh water, reducing vegetation, reducing production, increasing dust, increasing the likelihood of fire and the reduction of rainfall in the same way can lead to other climate damage and threaten internal and external security.
In this regard, it is suggested in order to reduce climate risks and prevent security issues arising from it, control and storage of running water (through dams, etc.) and optimal use of water and energy (through culture and in the next step is through fines, etc.) to be the first priority of the country's programs.

Keywords
Identification; Climate Change; National Security; Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Identification
  • climate change
  • National Security
  • Iran