بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر مدیریت ریسک خشک‌سالی بر معیشت کشاورزان در جهت حفظ پایداری منابع طبیعی استان کرمان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل

2 دانشگاه زابل- زابل- ایران

10.22034/jess.2022.144730

چکیده

خشک‌سالی‌ و بلایای طبیعی دارای اثرات زیان‌بار فراوانی در بخش‌های مختلف اجتماعی، اقتصادی و زیست محیطی دارد که باعث ایجاد خسارت در بخش کشاورزی و محیط‌زیست می‌شود. به‌منظور کاهش اثرات خشک‌سالی‌ از لحاظ اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست‌محیطی این پژوهش تلاش دارد آن را مورد واکاوی قرار دهد. مطالعه حاضر به بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر مدیریت ریسک خشک‌سالی‌ بر معیشت کشاورزان روستایی و با استفاده از هر یک از متغیرهای اقتصادی، زیست محیطی و اجتماعی در خصوص محصولات کشاورزی شهرستان کرمان می‌باشد. به این منظور هر یک از عوامل توسط کارشناسان سازمان جهاد کشاورزی و اداره‌ی منابع طبیعی مورد شناسایی قرار گرفته و جهت اولویت‌بندی هر یک از زیر معیارها از تکنیک تحلیل سلسله مراتبی توسعه یافته (IAHP ) استفاده شده است، همچنین تعداد 135 پرسشنامه توسط کارشناسان خبرگان سازمان جهاد کشاورزی، اداره‌ی منابع طبیعی و کشاورزان منطقه‌ی شهرستان کرمان در سال 1399 تکمیل شده است. نتایج نشان داد که متغیر اقتصادی با میانگین مجموع ضرایب نرمال شده گویه‌ها برابر با 0.069 بالاترین ضریب را به خود اختصاص داده است. بالاترین ضریب در گویه‌های این مؤلفه مربوط به گویه افزایش درگیری برسرمنابع آب است و افزایش بیکاری، افزایش هزینه‌های زندگی بوده و متغیرهای زیست محیطی با میانگین مجموع ضریب گویه‌ها برابر 0.054 در رتبه دوم قرار گرفته است. بالاترین گویه‌ی مربوط به این مؤلفه کاهش پوشش گیاهی مراتع، کاهش تنوع گونه‌های گیاهی قرار دارد. پیشنهاد می‌شود مدیران و سیاست‌گذاران این استان می‌توانند با برنامه‌ریزی‌ها و سیاست‌گذاری‌ها برای افزایش تاب‌آوری کشاورزان روستایی و مدیریت ریسک خشک‌سالی‌ هر یک از این مؤلفه‌های شناسایی شده را جهت آسیب‌پذیری کمتر کشاورزان روستایی منطقه در خصوص محصولات آسیب‌پذیز مدنظر قرار دهند.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the effective factors on drought risk management on farmers' livelihood in order to maintain the stability of natural resources in Kerman province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Seyed Mehdi Khayyat Hosseini 1
  • Mashalah salarpour 2
1 PhD student in Agricultural Economics, Zabol University
2 University of Zabol- Zabol- Iran
چکیده [English]

Abstract

Introduction
Drought occurs due to lack of rainfall over long periods of time and gradually takes over the environment and becomes a natural disaster; But because it is formed gradually, it is invisible to the people and officials and they pay less attention to it. Today, drought is the biggest natural disaster in the world. Which has affected human life (church et.al., 2017). Drought and natural disasters have many harmful effects in various social, economic and environmental sectors that cause damage to agriculture and the environment. Due to drought, surface and groundwater resources are severely reduced and have negative effects on rural life and agricultural structure (Jamshidi et al., 2015). According to the studies conducted and the importance of drought and the study of coping strategies at three levels: local, national and international, which are classified as economic, social and environmental factors in order to reduce the effects of drought. The subject of this research tries to explore it. The purpose of this study was to evaluate drought risk management with emphasis on environmental issues and livelihood of villagers in Kerman city and data and information were done through a questionnaire in the crop years of 2021-20 in the eastern region of Kerman and by hierarchical analysis. Extended (IAHP) identified and prioritized drought risk management. Today, drought and water shortages, declining agricultural production and conditions for achieving sustainable rural livelihoods in rural areas are not possible (Hua et.al., 2017). Most of the residents of the region, especially farmers, use their dependent natural resources and earn their income from the agricultural sector, which due to this phenomenon, their lands and agricultural and horticultural products have been severely affected and their income and economic benefits. Has reduced (Norozian et al., 1400). In addition to economic problems, drought has caused environmental, social, cultural and health problems for the people of this region. For example, the dust has reduced vegetation and the extinction of plant and animal species in the region and has also caused the migration of villagers to other cities in the country (Jamshidi et al., 2015). Not much has been done in the field of drought risk management to adapt to climate change and the resilience of agricultural communities (Rezvani, 2017).

Methodology
In this study, the Hierarchical Analysis Process (IAHP) has been used to assess the attitude of experts in order to identify and prioritize drought risk management for rural farmers in Kerman. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) approach has been widely used in multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM).
Each of the economic, social and environmental factors that have sub-categories have been compared with each other in pairs and the relevant promoters have been asked from 1 to 10 to comment on the extent to which these factors (Extraordinarily high superiority 9, very superior superiority 7, moderate superiority 5, equal importance 3, and insignificance 1 and the intermediate values 4, 6, 8, 10 and 2 are superior to each other to choose the desired option. IAHP), which was solved by Lee et al. In 2013. The steps in this method are as follows: Determining the set of criteria Initial scoring of criteria by experts based on a discrete range of 1 to 10 to each criterion the score obtained is called ui.
aij = max (ui-uj, 1) if ui≥uj (1)
aij = 1 / (uj-ui) if ui Advantages of IAHP method with AHP Compatibility in comparisons, information extraction efficiency: Since IAHP does not need decision-makers to perform the pairwise comparison process, a lot of effort (i.e., manpower costs) can be saved. One of the advantages of the IAHP technique is that it measures and controls the compatibility of each matrix and decision. The acceptable range of incompatibility in any system depends on the decision-maker, but in general, suggests that if the decision incompatibility is more than 1%, it is better for the decision-maker to reconsider his judgments. All of this can be done through Excel software. The IAHP method is used to analyze multi-criteria decision-making problems. This software provides the possibility of calculating sub-criteria, criterion weight, and incompatibility rate of pairwise comparison matrix (Khalili et al., 2020).

Conclusion
In this study, to investigate the factors affecting drought risk management on the livelihood of rural farmers using each of the economic, environmental, and social variables with their sub-criteria to identify the economic variable with the average of the total normalized coefficients of items equal to 0.069 highest coefficient Dedicated to himself. The highest coefficient in the items of this component is related to the items of increase of unemployment, a decrease of income, an increase of living expenses, a decrease of water supply required for agricultural activities, a decrease of investment in the agricultural sector, severity of damages to the livestock sector, decrease of water quality Beverages, rising food prices, declining prices for agricultural land and orchards, and declining agricultural production yields are in second place, with environmental variables in second place with an average total coefficient of 0.054. Suggestions in each of the economic, social and environmental fields: Attention of the public sector to allocating funds to rural farmers in the times before, during and after the drought, to reduce unemployment and to pay attention to the expansion and development of agricultural products and exports of agricultural products, to increase The level of public and private sector investment in the rural agricultural industry and the provision and support of drought-affected farmers by the public sector and the use of private sector participation. Attention to the management of groundwater resources and preventing the improper digging of aqueducts for irrigation in agriculture using modern irrigation methods to prevent the reduction of groundwater resources and aquifers in the sustainability of water and environmental resources. Paying attention to the reduction of rangeland vegetation in times of drought and using young agricultural specialists and natural resources officials in the province to prevent the destruction of rangeland vegetation from livestock grazing and providing livestock institutions for rural ranchers can be effective in preserving the environment and rangeland cover.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Risk Management
  • Drought
  • Environmental
  • IAHP model