ارزیابی عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه گردشگری سلامت در استان تهران با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی

Today, many people travel for different purposes, these people go to different places, and therefore if their stay lasts more than 24 hours and less than a year, they are called tourists. Health tourism is a common type of tourism that aims to achieve health, both physically and mentally. In Iran, health tourism has developed a lot in the last decade and both domestic and foreign travelers have come to medical centers for this purpose and after some time have improved. This industry can drive the economic wheels of a country if many countries have invested in this industry. Iran has a good competitive advantage and that is that you offer good preferential costs for these services to tourists, which has made Iran have many tourists in this field, which has many advantages for Iran, including the import of currency. He pointed to the country and the development of job creation in various fields. The costs of treatment and treatment in our country, Iran, are less than many countries, to the extent that it is not comparable with developed countries and even more than neighboring countries. Less, according to the World's Competitiveness Report, in 2018, Iran Regarding Importance This Factor In Research As accepted, The most important Cause Among Causes Travel In Tourism Health The costs of Treatment. Medical tourism and related business affairs are recognized as one of the most lucrative sectors of hospitality in many destination countries, especially developing countries (Han, 2016; Hyung et al., 2016).Letunoska et al. (2020) in a study entitled Scientific Research in the Health Tourism Market: A Systematic Literature Review stated that the authors' attention is focused on bibliographic analysis in the field of health tourism. The main purpose of this study is to find out which countries' works are dominant in scientific circles and which nationalities have the most impact on the scientific community in terms of the number and content of their research. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the factors affecting the development of health tourism in Tehran province with a futures research approach and the use of Dematel methods and fuzzy logic network analysis process.
Methodology
This research is applied in terms of purpose because it is a set of valid (reliable) and systematic rules and tools to investigate the facts and discover the unknowns and achieve solutions to problems. These solutions are to reduce the conflict between the pillars of the project, which can help decision makers in the field of project management to be able to better understand the causes of time delays and use the solutions to solve those causes. To. Since this study examines the current situation in the field of research, it is descriptive in that it provides a good description of the effective barriers to sustainable supply chain management and their prioritization, and since it examines the opinions and preferences of individuals. Paying through the questionnaire is a survey research. These comments are collected in the form of questionnaires related to Dematel, process analysis. To apply this method in the field under study after the library studies, a questionnaire is prepared and distributed among experts and to solve problems of theories, techniques and techniques. Basic fuzzy number research and Dematel techniques use network process analysis.
Results
First, a questionnaire was distributed among the experts (12 experts) and they commented on the importance of each criterion (using low, medium and high range), which are shown in Table 1.
Which is obtained by averaging the comments using the fuzzy mean spectrum of the comments shown in Table 2; In other words, it is quite obvious that each person's opinion is converted to trapezoidal fuzzy numbers using Table 2, and the average opinions are obtained using the fuzzy averaging relation of trapezoidal numbers (expressed in Chapter 3). Then we distribute the second questionnaire among the experts, the results of which are shown in Table 3. By fuzzy averaging of the results, the average of experts' opinions in Questionnaire 2 is determined, which is shown in Table 4. In the next step, the disagreement about each of the first and second steps is calculated, the results of which are shown in Table 5. Determining the final weight of sub-criteria using hierarchical analysis In this step, using fuzzy hierarchical analysis method and according to the criteria and sub-criteria, the weight of each criterion and sub-criteria is determined, which is shown in Table 6. In this step, using the results obtained from the fuzzy dematel method, we form the dependency matrix of the sub-criteria using pairwise comparisons and a questionnaire, which is shown in Table 7.
Determining the weight of sub-criteria
In this step, by multiplying the matrix of the normalized table, the dependency matrix between the sub-criteria and the weights obtained from the fuzzy hierarchical analysis of the weight of each sub-criterion is determined; the final weight of each criterion is shown in Table 8.
- Conclusion
The global slogan of health tourism, facilities and services in the level of first or advanced world countries and prices and costs in the level of countries in Development and the Third World. Global revenue from health tourism reached more than 75 billion in 2014, which was very small compared to our country's capacity to attract health tourism. Considering that between 2 and 5% of foreign tourists are health tourists, it is predicted that the number of this type of tourists in 2021 will reach more than 21 million people in the world, which in the current conditions and management and in the most optimistic state, the share Iran will not be more than 71,000 people. The turnover of the world tourism sector in the coming years of the 21st century is expected to exceed the turnover of the industrial sector and reach 4 trillion in a few years, which in this amount of turnover, the feet of illegal speculators and the power mafia are certainly in question. Health tourism will be opened, which due to the fact that our country is at the center of applicants for medical tourism services (citizens of Arab countries, newly independent countries and Iran's neighbors) is practically expert planning in order to avoid Threats related to the treatment process, how to enter the country, hospitalization and recovery, are necessary and will prevent the deposit of financial added value due to health tourism to the pockets of illegal and unrelated stakeholders. Considering that according to the predictions made by experts, the corona pandemic will end in the not too distant future, and before the corona pandemic, the country had a good situation in the field of health tourism, so in this study has ranked the factors affecting health tourism. Based on this, at first, the criteria are determined using the theoretical foundations and the opinion of experts. Hotel services, hotel cost and hotel quality of accommodation, quality of medical services including criteria: quality of operation, quality of periodic check-ups and quality of hospital services, quality of marketing including criteria: providing services based on tour program, providing sufficient information and availability of roads Appropriate communication to respond, the cost includes the criteria: the cost of periodic services, the cost of hotel services and the cost of operation. Treatment is also a travel and expense related service that must meet these criteria. Appropriate marketing has also been identified by experts as a cluster. Examination of Dematel results shows that clusters affect each other. Accordingly, Dematel results show that: The criterion of transportation quality affects the quality of hoteling. The quality criterion of hoteling affects the quality of transportation. The quality of medical services affects the quality of hoteling, the quality of transportation, the quality of marketing and the cost. The quality of marketing affects the quality of hoteling, the quality of transportation, the quality of medical services and the cost. Cost affects the quality of hoteling and the quality of medical services. Finally, a review of the criteria ranking shows that one criterion of the medical services quality cluster is among the 4 criteria (operation quality). Two criteria of the marketing quality cluster are among the 4 criteria (providing services based on tour program and providing sufficient information). Which shows that these criteria under the influence of Dematel results have caused a high ranking for these criteria and also in the cost cluster is a criterion among the first 4 criteria (operating costs) that the combination High priority criteria indicate that these three clusters are important.