برآورد خسارات اقتصادی پدیده گرد و غبار بر بخش کشاورزی (مطالعه موردی: دهستان‌های شهرستان مسجدسلیمان)

The phenomenon of dust in recent years has affected a large part of the western and southwestern regions of Iran and has caused great socio-economic damage.The phenomenon of dust has existed in Iran for many years, but the main studies have been done on the climate issue of this phenomenon, and not much attention has been paid to the human dimension and its effects on agriculture and rural life.Because rural areas are more exposed to pollution than urban areas and are more vulnerable to dust due to lack of facilities, so the damage to villages, which have a share in the economy of Khuzestan province, is greater. Khuzestan province is the main center of the crisis caused by the dust phenomenon. One of the obvious effects of this phenomenon in Khuzestan province is the damage it has caused to the agricultural sector and rural life of the province. Agriculture affects many aspects of the national economy, but a number of factors limit the quantitative and qualitative trends of production in this sector. One of these is dust, which causes some special economic effects. In this study, by using parametric methods, some of the economic damages of dust phenomenon on the agricultural sector of Masjed Soleiman city have been estimated for the years 2012-2016. Masjed Soleiman city, like most cities in Khuzestan, has a hot and relatively dry climate and has hot summers and Mediterranean winters.The average annual rainfall is over 400 mm and the average temperature is less than -4 ° C in winter and more than 50 ° C in summer. The phenomenon of dust affects the affected areas in economic, social, environmental and physical dimensions. Some dust effects are very complex and take time to determine. Therefore, it is very difficult to estimate such dust effects as Rial damages. One of the most important effects of the dust phenomenon is its production effects. Production effects will include reducing the amount of production in various economic sectors due to the closure of production units, reducing the productivity of production factors, failure to complete investment plans, and so on. In three ways, the effects of dust production can be examined through econometric methods. The estimation of dust damage to agricultural sector was performed using four scenarios of depreciation of agricultural output (10%, 20%, 30% and 40%). In order to calculate the depreciation of the agricultural sector based on the four scenarios, first the estimation of the output value was assumed based on four scenarios (estimated estimation value) and then calculating the depreciation rate from the estimated estimation values. The phenomenon of dust reduces crop production in the agricultural sector. Based on the four defined scenarios, the amount of damages suffered by the agricultural products of the rural sector of Masjed Soleiman city has been calculated separately for the year. Damage or loss to agricultural products has been interpreted in the form of devaluation of output.According to the first scenario (10% decrease in output value) due to the occurrence of dust phenomenon, the value of agricultural output in the rural areas of Masjed Soleiman city has decreased by 4846974650, 14863214620, 2156169370, 24558426098 Rials, respectively. Estimated losses of dust phenomenon on crops in rural areas of Masjed Soleiman city during 2012-2013 based on the second scenario (20% decrease in output value), the third scenario (30% decrease in output value) and the fourth scenario (40% decrease in output value) It was calculated separately for the studied years. The amount of livestock production in the study area was calculated separately by the type of crop and the desired crop year. The main livestock products produced in the rural areas of Masjed Soleiman city include: red meat, chicken, milk and dairy products, eggs and honey. Also, the average price of livestock products was collected by product type and crop year. Based on these statistics, the amount of damage to the livestock production in the study area was calculated.The phenomenon of dust reduces livestock production in the agricultural sector. Based on the four defined scenarios, the amount of damages suffered by livestock products in the agricultural sector of rural areas of Masjed Soleiman city has been calculated by year. Damage or loss to livestock production in the agricultural sector is interpreted in the form of devaluation of output. Four scenarios were considered (damage value). The total economic value of dust damage on agricultural (livestock and livestock) in the study area, based on four scenarios of 10, 20, 30 and 40% reduction in staff value have been, respectively, 52701567573, 105403135847, 158104704021 and 377935497352 tomans. According to the results, dust is one of the atmospheric phenomena that causes a lot of economic damage to the agricultural sector annually. Based on the four defined scenarios, the amount of damage suffered by the entire agricultural sector and agricultural and livestock subdivisions of rural areas of Masjed Soleiman city has been calculated. Dust is one of the atmospheric phenomena that causes a lot of economic damage to the agricultural sector every year. Based on the four defined scenarios, the amount of damage suffered by the entire agricultural sector and agricultural and livestock subdivisions of rural areas of Masjed Soleiman city has been calculated.The estimated amount of economic losses imposed on the agricultural sector of rural areas of Masjed Soleiman city indicates the heavy costs of this destructive phenomenon on the agricultural economy of the region. Obviously, if all the tangible and intangible economic, social and environmental costs caused by the dust phenomenon on the country are calculated, the depth of the catastrophe will become more apparent. The estimated amount of economic losses imposed on the agricultural sector of rural areas of Masjed Soleiman city indicates the heavy costs of this destructive phenomenon on the agricultural economy of the region. Obviously, if all the tangible and intangible economic, social and environmental costs caused by the dust phenomenon on the country are calculated, the depth of the catastrophe will become more apparent.Therefore, crisis management and prevention management should be used to overcome this environmental problem.