شناسایی و اولویت‌بندی مدیریت ریسک خشکسالی با تاکید بر تاب‌آوری روستاییان (مطالعه‌ی موردی: محصولات گرمسیری بلوچستان)

Abstract

Introduction
With the occurrence of recent droughts in the southern cities of Sistan and Baluchestan province, it is of special importance to pay attention to preventive measures that can reduce the drought effects of rural farmers and increase the patience of rural farmers against risks (resilience). Due to the drought phenomenon, food prices usually increase rapidly, which in turn reduces rural access to food. Drought is one of the biggest natural calamities, which is caused by a decrease in rainfall, decrease in humidity, increase in temperature or the simultaneous effect of these factors. This phenomenon has a destructive effect on various economic, social, environmental and psychological aspects of rural communities, and sometimes its intensity is such that it has led to the destruction and poverty of rural communities (Dyke, 2011). It divides drought and its consequences into four economic, social, environmental and psychological categories. Among the economic consequences of drought can be the severe spread of unemployment, the severe decrease in income, the decrease in the level of agricultural production, the decrease in the price of arable and garden lands, the severity of the damages caused to the livestock sector, the decrease in the supply of water needed for agricultural activities, and the decrease in investment. In the agricultural sector, there has been an increase in the price of food, a decrease in drinking water and an increase in the cost of living, while in the social discussion, its consequences include an increase in the motivation for migration, the severity of the prevalence of disease, a decrease in the level of health and quality of life, and a decrease in the level of unity and cooperation among villagers and increased incidence of conflicts (especially for access to water sources). Therefore, the first step to deal with drought and adjust its consequences is to know the deep understanding of its consequences and the dimensions of vulnerability and resilience of rural farmers in order to improve their threshold of tolerance and flexibility, which in most developing countries including Iran It has been neglected (MC Manus et al., 2012). Resilience has the ability to raise the threshold of patience and tolerance of rural farmers against all kinds of natural hazards, including drought, and in the event of a drought hazard, rural farmers will be able to recover after the hazard conditions. Since the southern cities of Sistan and Baluchistan province are one of the main centers of tropical products production and have not been spared from natural disasters such as floods and droughts. Therefore, in this research, the effects of drought risk management were investigated using three economic, social and environmental criteria, each of which had sub-criteria; With this aim, which of the indicators (economic, social and environmental) is the most effective factor in the field of drought risk management? And whether risk management can control and reduce the consequences of natural disasters such as drought and flood, etc.

Methodology
The present study seeks to identify and prioritize drought risk management by emphasizing the resilience of rural farmers to tropical crops in the region. For this purpose, each of the economic, social and environmental factors and their sub-criteria have been identified by the experts of Jihad Agricultural Organization and Natural Resources Management and to prioritize each of the sub-criteria, FAHP fuzzy hierarchical analysis technique has been used. 42 questionnaires have been completed by experts of Jihad Agricultural Organization and Natural Resources Department of Balochistan region (Khash, Saravan, Nikshahr, Iranshahr, Konarak, Chabahar and Sarbaz). The results in MATLAB software showed that the most important research variable is the economic variable. The current research is descriptive-analytical, which is practical in terms of its purpose, because it seeks to develop practical knowledge in the field of risk management in order to reduce the vulnerability and consequences of drought among rural farmers. In terms of data collection, it was a survey and the required data was collected using a questionnaire. in order to achieve research objectives; The questionnaire created by the researcher was set using AHP and fuzzy AHP or FAHP methods. After checking the validity and reliability of the questionnaire in the form of random sampling among 42 expert experts of the Organization of Agricultural Jihad and Natural Resources in the south of Sistan and Baluchistan province (Khas, Saravan, Iranshahr, Nikshahr, Kanarak, Chabahar, Sarbaz) who are in the field The production of tropical products (bananas, dates, mangoes, chico and guava) has been distributed. In this research, to measure the attitude of experts in order to identify and prioritize drought risk management with emphasis on the resilience of farmers in the south of Sistan and Baluchistan province who produce some tropical products such as mango, banana, chico, guava, date, from the chain analysis process. Hierarchical (AHP) has been used.

Conclusion
In the current research, the effective factors on drought risk management and resilience of rural farmers producing tropical products such as banana, chico, guava, date and mango in the south of Sistan and Baluchistan province regarding each of them using each of the economic, social and environmental variables. This variable has the highest coefficient with the average sum of normalized coefficients of items equal to 0.077. The highest coefficient in the items of this component is related to the item of the intensity of unemployment. The social variable with a total normalized average of items equal to 0.029 is the second variable affecting the factors affecting rural farmers' resilience to drought risk management. Finally, the environmental variable with an average total coefficient of items equal to 0.0158 is in third place. Among the factors affecting the resilience of rural farmers is drought risk management in the province, and the highest coefficient in the items of this component is related to increasing the motivation of migration. Therefore, it can be concluded that farmers are more vulnerable to economic factors. And risk management and resilience in economic fields can be of the greatest help to rural farmers in this region. Proposals are presented according to the obtained results: Due to the fact that farmers become unemployed during a drought, it is suggested that the government sector help farmers in this field by using credits given to farmers before, during and after the drought. Provision and support of farmers affected by drought by the public sector, as well as the presence of the private sector in this sector; Because private sector investment is one of the requirements for the progress of societies in this era. In order to prevent the decline in the health and quality of life of the villagers in Baluchistan region, it is necessary to provide adequate support to the health and treatment sector by the government sector so that the villagers do not face any problems in this field. In order to prevent conflicts over water resources in most villages that are engaged in the cultivation of tropical crops, it is necessary to pay more attention to the way water is distributed.