For a long time, the fire incident has been the main problem of urban management and sustainable urban development. In addition to human and social factors, the occurrence of fires is largely influenced by the urban physical environment. The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature. The available information on fire incidents (during the five-year period of 2014-2018) was mapped and analyzed in terms of space and time using the spatial analysis available in GIS. Then, using spatial analysis of hot spots, the pattern of spatial distribution of fire incidents in Ardabil city was determined. Also, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) technique has been used to analyze high or low fire incidents in Ardabil city. According to the results of the research, the density of incidents is higher in the central parts and in spots from the outskirts of the city. About (40%) of the city's area are located in areas with a high and very high risk of vulnerability. The degree of vulnerability is high in the central part of the city and neighborhoods that have unfavorable socio-economic and environmental conditions.
Introduction
Disasters and environmental hazards have long been considered as the most destructive factors that harm humans, society and their habitats (Schneider, 2019). As the population has grown tremendously over the last hundred years, environmental hazards have also intensified. As the world is facing an unprecedented increase in the number of disasters today (Romanello et al. 2021), environmental risks include natural and human risks (Ben et al. 2019). If most of the risks of the 21st century are also the risks caused by undesirable human intervention (Morganstein & Ursano, 2020). According to the Red Cross, in the last 10 years, two billion people have been directly caught in the trap of environmental disasters (Imbach et al. 2017). Asia region is the most accident-prone region of the world (Lai, 2013). The studies of scientists and the available evidence show that the climate changes of the earth, the development of industries and as a result the increase of environmental pollutants, the destruction of vegetation by humans, the growth of the population, the development of urbanization, the spread of poverty and marginalization and the inability of the vulnerable to escape from this. The flawed cycle has caused an increase in vulnerability to all kinds of hazards, the result of which is an increase in the occurrence of accidents and disasters. These frequent disasters create a wave of vulnerabilities in social, economic and political processes (Guha-Sapir, 2019).Iran, like many developing countries that are rapidly urbanizing, is highly vulnerable to disasters. In addition to two major and devastating disasters (earthquake and flood-drought), large fires also occur in urban areas every year in some parts of the country, which, while creating disruptions in the lives of citizens, slow down the process of planning and realizing sustainable development programs. It causes problems. In Iran, from 1990 to 2017, an average of 20,000 fires have been reported in large and medium-sized cities of Iran. For example, in 2017, Plasco's 17-story commercial building in the central part of Tehran collapsed due to a fire, killing 25 people and injuring 235 people, and causing millions of dollars in damage to the business (Belasri, 2021). There is still a risk of fire in many Iranian cities due to various reasons, including old buildings (Kaleji & Murthy, 2011).
The city of Ardabil, one of the medium-sized cities of Iran, is currently facing many challenges due to the population density, physical compactness and old spatial structure of the city, the limited access and the limited number of fire stations. An average of 300 building fires have been reported annually in this historical city since 2015-2020. The discovery of fire has been an important issue that has played an effective role in the progress of human civilization, after man was able to control and use fire, he has made countless uses of it. Of course, it is not known how fire was prepared for the first time, and it is conjectured. The primary fires were created by nature (Bagheri et al., 2015), for example, by thunder and lightning, or by molten materials that came out of volcanoes, or by the scorching rays of the sun burning dry leaves and plants, and in the first place, humans are certainly afraid of fire, because it causes Trees and forests have been burnt and it has hurt his body. It was because of fear that for a while people worshiped fire. Later, when they were gradually able to use fire to heat or cook food, their fear has decreased.
Methodology
The current research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of nature and method. According to the nature of the study, the method of collecting information is in the form of documents and a library, which includes information on fire incidents in Ardabil city. Therefore, fire incidents during a 5-year period (2016-2020) were analyzed temporally and spatially using spatial analysis techniques in the ArcGIS software environment. Then, using the spatial analysis of hot spots, the pattern of spatial distribution of construction violations in the city of Ardabil during the 5-year period of study was determined. Also, Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) technique has been used to analyze high or low fire incidents in Ardabil city.
Conclusion
This research was done in order to identify and spatially analyze areas prone to fire. Using the findings of the research, it was found that most of the fires happened in residential units 30.68% and open and green spaces 19.52%. Deliberate arson and vandalism with a share of 44.47% are the most common cause of fire in Ardabil city. The distribution patterns of fire accidents are different depending on the causes and types of fire. Therefore, the peak of fire is in the afternoon, at 13:00. Summer has the highest number of fire incidents, apart from that. Also, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays in the fourth week of every month have the highest frequency of fires. Although the occurrence of fires in the city follows a complex pattern, the spatial distribution of the number of fires follows the center-periphery pattern. The higher density of accidents in the old and central parts of the city and then in the peripheral areas, introduces this part of the city as an accident-prone and critical area.
Keywords: Spatial analysis, urban management, fire risk, GIS.