آینده‌پژوهی در محیط زیست براساس آمایش سرزمین به روش سناریوپردازی (مطالعه موردی استان زنجان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناسی ارشد علوم محیط‌زیست، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران

2 گروه علوم محیط زیست، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه زنجان

3 دانشیار گروه علوم محیط زیست، دانشکده علوم، دانشگاه زنجان

چکیده

این پژوهش با هدف شناسایی عامل‌های اصلی و تأثیرگذار بر محیط‌زیست استان زنجان و در نهایت انتخاب مناسبترین سناریو و کمک به کاهش مشکلات محیط‌زیست در آینده با ارزیابی اطلاعات و مستندات موجود در حوزه محیط‌زیست و بر اساس آمایش سرزمین، انجام گردیده است. روش انجام مطالعه حاضر ترکیبی از روش‌های کتابخانه‌ای، اسنادی و پیمایشی و از نظر ماهیت بر اساس روش‌های آینده‌پژوهی بوده است. با به‌کارگیری ترکیبی از مدل‌های کمی و کیفی و بـا استفاده نظرات متخصصــان، تعــداد 53 عامــل بــه عنــوان عامل‌های کلیــدی و پیشــران‌هــای محیط‌زیست استان زنجان شناســایی شد و سپس تأثیـرات متقاطـع هــرکــدام از نیروهــای پیشــران بــر دیگــر نیروهــا تعییــن و در نهایت با اسـتفاده از ماتریـس میـزان تأثیرگـذاری و عـدم‌ قطعیـت، مهم‌تریـن نیروهــای پیشــران مشـخص و سناریوها تدوین گردید. بر اساس نتایج پنج عامل اصلی مدیریت، دیدگاه کارآفرینان، فناوری، تسهیلات و وضعیت اقتصادی به عنوان عامل‌های دارای بیش‌ترین عدم قطعیت و تأثیرگذارترین عامل‌های موثر بر محیط‌زیست استان زنجان شناسایی و با توجه به سناریوهای کمی، استخوان‌بندی اصلی سناریوهای محیط زیست استان زنجان با رویکرد آمایشی عامل‌های بیرونی (وضعیت اقتصادی) و عامل‌های درونی (مدیریت محیط‌زیست استان) صورت پذیرفت. در نهایت سه سناریو از جمله سناریوآینده مطلوب (ثبات اقتصادی و مدیریت یکپارچه محیط زیست)، سناریو آینده ممکن (ثبات اقتصادی و عدم یکپارچه مدیریت محیط زیست) و سناریو سوم آینده محتمل (عدم ثبات اقتصادی و عدم مدیریت یکپارچه محیط زیست) برای استان زنجان تدوین گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Environmental foresight based on landuse planning by scenario processing method (case study: Zanjan province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Maryam Bagheri 1
  • Younes Khosravi 2
  • Abbas Ali Zamani 3
1 MSc., Department of Environmental Science, University of Zanjan, Zanjan,
2 Environmental Science Faculty of Science. University of Zanjan
3 Associate Professor of Environmental Science, Faculty of Science. University of Zanjan
چکیده [English]

Introduction
The increasing pace of change in the early decade of the 21st century has led to the emergence of an age of uncertainty and an environment full of opportunities and threats to today's complex systems. In this volatile and rapidly changing environment, traditional planning tools such as outsourcing, forecasting, and foresight alone will not work for the medium to long term. In fact, it should be said that the current problems of human society due to the lack of accurate knowledge of the future in the past on the one hand and astonishing developments in technology along with the accelerating process of globalization on the other hand, recognizing future developments and striving for architecture is necessary and avoided. Zanjan province has experienced rapid growth in the number of urban population, number of urban settlements and economic activities in the last 4 decades. Due to the challenges of the natural and environmental structure of the province, including the province in semi-arid and arid conditions, exploitation of mines and economic, development activities and the spread of pollution, reduction of some animal species, destruction of biological resources, severe soil erosion, harvest unprincipled sources of water resources and destruction of riverbeds, etc. make it necessary to conduct research on the environmental status of the province in the next few years based on the current situation and future forecasts based on scientific methods. Therefore, this study aims to identify the main and influential factors on the environment of Zanjan province and finally select the most appropriate scenario and help reduce environmental problems in the future by evaluating the available information and documents in the field of environment and based on land management. Has been.

Methodology
Method of the present study is combination of library, documentary and survey methods and in terms of nature is based on futures research methods. Gathering information about the environmental status of the province is based on land management studies and analysis of the environmental status of the province and preparing maps related to ArcGIS software using the layers in the province. In this study, influential factors were determined according to the opinion of experts and specialists and using a questionnaire in the form of Delphi method (Delphi technique) and to analyze the research information, the method of interaction analysis was selected. MICMAC software was also used to analyze the effect of factors on each other and also Scenario Wizard software was used to perform scripting calculations. In this study, using the Delphi method, a questionnaire was prepared in two stages. In the first stage, the questionnaire was designed as an open-ended question and was provided to experts (25 experts) and they were asked to identify the effective factors in the environment of Zanjan province in the central issues, taking into account various and comprehensive areas, including economic. , Introduce social, cultural, political and environmental. The result was the extraction of 53 possible factors affecting the environment of Zanjan province. In the second stage, after identifying the effective factors, the variables were entered into the interaction analysis matrix, and then the standard interaction analysis questionnaire was provided to the experts. The calculated indirects were analyzed and after identifying the effective factors and uncertainties, finally the final key factors identified as the main underlying factors in the scenario were used. As a result, by preparing favorable and credible scenarios, strategies for the environmental situation of Zanjan province have been stated.
Conclusion
In order to analyze the future of environmental research in Zanjan province, first through Delphi method and focus groups and based on the discussions in the theoretical and methodological frameworks and environmental challenges of the province, the opinions of experts in the field of environment through an open questionnaire, 53 effective factors in the environment. Biology of Zanjan province was extracted. Then, by placing these factors in a matrix of 53 by 53, the effect of each of these factors on each other was determined in the form of a questionnaire. The results show that the environment is more dependent on the human factor and legal structure than anything else. As laws and regulations and environmental management have an important role in the future environment of the province, in the next stage, economic and investment structures are effective. On the other hand, the natural environment and natural areas have the most direct impact in the future, in the second stage, all types of environmental pollution are affected. Then the fields of agriculture and natural resources are the most affected. In general, it can be inferred that human factors are the most influential and natural factors and natural resources are the most influential. Based on the results, it was determined that one of the most important factors in the future of Zanjan province's environment with a landscaping approach is Zanjan province's environmental management and the economic situation of the province and the country, which as two driving forces can affect the future of Zanjan province's environment. Give. These two forces were identified as the axes of the scenario, based on which three scenarios with the titles of the first scenario (marigold) - economic stability - integrated environmental management of the province, the second scenario (in search of spring) - economic stability - lack of integrated environmental management Biology of the province and the third scenario (spring death) - economic instability - lack of integrated management of the province's environment were developed.
According to the the lack of selected certainties and the main axes of the scenario, three scenarios for the future environment of Zanjan province were conceived. In the most favorable scenario, we will face economic stability and integrated environmental management of the province. In this scenario, the situation of environmental indicators will increase and the province will develop in all environmental areas. Public participation and capacity building will also increase in this scenario. In fact, this scenario shows the optimal environmental situation of Zanjan province. In the second scenario, when economic stability and lack of integrated environmental management prevail in the province, the scenario of parts of the environment, including the protection of natural areas and endangered species due to lack of management costs and human resources are most affected. In general, in this scenario, the environmental situation of the province will be degraded in some sectors and will be protected in some sectors. In the latest scenario, which is faced with economic instability and lack of integrated environmental management, all sectors of the environment, including the protection of natural and endangered species, polluting industries and urban and rural waste management, are most affected. In general, in this scenario, the environmental situation of the province will be destroyed in all sectors.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Foresight
  • Land Use Planning
  • Scenario
  • Environment
  • Zanjan