The effects of forecasted precipitation amount on probable maximum precipitation and probable maximum flood parameters

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی عمران مدیریت منابع آب دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه یاسوج

2 استادیار رشته مهندسی عمران دانشکده فنی و مهندسی، دانشگاه یاسوج

چکیده

This study aims to calculate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF)parameters. For this purpose, data length adequacy of historical precipitation data and data forecasted were analysed using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator under Representative concentration pathway 8.5 and 4.5 scenarios in 2021-2040. Modified method and the method provided by soil conservation service-curve number were used to estimate (PMP) and (PMF)parameters, respectively. To investigate data adequacy, the Hurst coefficient was examined for Shiraz, Abadeh and Lar according to the length of statistical periods. Shiraz, Abadeh and Lar have the desired data with the coefficients of Hurst 0.61, 0.57 and 0.52, respectively. The results indicate increased precipitation under both Representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in 2021-2040 for all three climate zones compared to historical data. (PMP) parameter has experienced an increasing trend in Abadeh and Lar and a decreasing trend in Shiraz due to a decrease in the value of 24hour (PMP) parameter under both scenarios compared to historical data. Given the (PMP) parameters for Shiraz region, the (PMF)parameter has experienced a downward trend under both scenarios and an upward trend for Lar and Abadeh compared to historical data.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

The effects of forecasted precipitation amount on probable maximum precipitation and probable maximum flood parameters

نویسندگان [English]

  • reza khalili 1
  • mohammad parvinnia 2
  • hamed motaghi 1
1 Master of Civil Engineering, Student of Water Resources Management, Faculty of Engineering, Yasouj University
2 Assistant Professor of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Engineering, Yasouj University
چکیده [English]

This study aims to calculate the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF)parameters. For this purpose, data length adequacy of historical precipitation data and data forecasted were analysed using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator under Representative concentration pathway 8.5 and 4.5 scenarios in 2021-2040. Modified method and the method provided by soil conservation service-curve number were used to estimate (PMP) and (PMF)parameters, respectively. To investigate data adequacy, the Hurst coefficient was examined for Shiraz, Abadeh and Lar according to the length of statistical periods. Shiraz, Abadeh and Lar have the desired data with the coefficients of Hurst 0.61, 0.57 and 0.52, respectively. The results indicate increased precipitation under both Representative concentration pathway 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios in 2021-2040 for all three climate zones compared to historical data. (PMP) parameter has experienced an increasing trend in Abadeh and Lar and a decreasing trend in Shiraz due to a decrease in the value of 24hour (PMP) parameter under both scenarios compared to historical data. Given the (PMP) parameters for Shiraz region, the (PMF)parameter has experienced a downward trend under both scenarios and an upward trend for Lar and Abadeh compared to historical data.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hershfield Model
  • Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG)
  • Precipitation forecast
  • Probable maximum flood (PMF)
  • Probable maximum precipitation (PMP)