عنوان مقاله [English]
The agricultural sector is of strategic importance in the economy and development due to the supply of food required by the country. Therefore, in order to ensure the sustainable security of this sector, appropriate development measures must be taken. On the other hand, the agricultural sector is the major consumer of water and electricity (16% of total electricity consumption) in Iran. Water is the most important factor in the production of agricultural products and groundwater is the most important supplier of water resources in the agricultural sector. In the past, diesel fuel was used to transport water from the depths of the earth to the surface, in which case a significant amount of vital and strategic resources was wasted due to the use of traditional and worn-out methods. Today, one of the basic solutions to prevent water loss is to use electric pump motors instead of diesel. Also, timely, reliable and cheap supply of electricity required by this sector, by electrifying all wells in the agricultural sector, will reduce the consumption of fossil fuels, reduce environmental pollution and optimize energy consumption. This will also help increase agricultural production, accelerate economic growth and increase the country's non-oil exports. Agriculture is the main consumer of water in the world and 93% of water is consumed annually by this sector. Water demand in urban and industrial areas is projected to double between 1995 and 2025 in developed countries facing water shortages. The supply of water for irrigation is also at risk, and this sector is considered economically inefficient and the largest consumer of water. Agriculture is the largest consumer of water in Iran. Given the water shortage in many parts of the country and the increasing competition of other sectors of the economy with agriculture over water, it seems necessary to gradually increase the economic value of water in agriculture. It is predicted that rising water prices will lead to increased water productivity and economic surplus water consumption in agriculture. Increasing the price of electricity used in water wells in this sector is one of the methods used by the government to increase and control the price of agricultural water. To this end, and in accordance with the Agricultural Well Acceleration Act of 1999, the government intends to electrify water well pumps. Reducing environmental pollution and consuming fossil fuels are the benefits of using these regulations in the agricultural sector. Therefore, many of Iran's agricultural wells are regulated by law. The government spends a lot of money on electrifying agricultural water wells. The government intends to increase agricultural electricity tariffs in the second phase of subsidy reform and increase the cost of agricultural water. The goal is to optimize water consumption and increase efficiency in this sector. Jiroft city is one of the oldest cities in Kerman province in Iran, which includes four parts: Ismaili, Sardouieh, Jabalbarz and Esfahdah. Jiroft city has the most agricultural products among the cities of Kerman province. Therefore, the reaction of farmers to the liberalization of electricity prices in this sector is considered. The city includes 1,500 hectares of pomegranate, almond, olive, pistachio and peach orchards and also has 6,000 hectares of arable land, of which 2,100 hectares include 1,200 hectares of wheat, 600 hectares of barley, 100 hectares of tomatoes, 100 hectares of mandab and 30 hectares. Is rapeseed. There are 3900 hectares in the form of fallow. There are 160 wells in Jiroft city, of which 120 are electric and 40 are diesel. This number of electric wells have been equipped during the 1360s so far, and 10% of these 120 wells have been electrified in the last 10 years.
Given that in the positive planning approach, many limitations and disadvantages of normative mathematical programming have been removed, this method has been considered by agricultural economics researchers in recent years and has had wide applications in examining the effects of policies. Positive mathematical programming is an experimental analysis method that uses all available information, no matter how scarce. The PMP model, formally introduced by Identity in 1995, actually enables the correct calibration of mathematical programming patterns using the observed behaviors of economic agents at the aggregated or non-aggregated level.
In line with targeted subsidy policies and the importance of energy in the agricultural sector, the present study examines the effects of electricity price liberalization by applying different price increase scenarios in Jiroft. To investigate the changes in the cultivation pattern in the two groups of farmers, four scenarios of increasing electricity costs by 5, 10, 20 and 30% were applied. Given that the cost of electricity accounts for a significant share of farmers' costs, the results of the implemented policies showed that the increase in electricity prices reduced the area under cultivation of some products with low profitability and products with high water consumption. Has been. Ahmadpour in 2012 and Fattahi in 2010 also concluded that with the increase in energy costs in agriculture, the area under cultivation of some crops has decreased. Edwards et al. 1996 also showed that higher electricity prices lead to lower water levels as well as lower acreage. Also, in all scenarios, farmers' incomes have decreased. On average, the impact of electricity price increase policies on the gross return of the first group was greater than the second group. Also, the changes in crop area in the second group are more than the first group. In implementing the policy of liberalization, measures must be taken to prevent the loss of farmers. In the first group of farmers, barley has the highest reduction in cultivation area and corn in this scenario has a decrease in cultivation area, which can be due to the high water requirement of corn. In contrast, most of the cultivated area is replaced by irrigated wheat. The second group of farmers, consisting of farmers with a cultivated area of more than 15 hectares, had the lowest decrease in gross yield. Blue barley product has low profitability. This has caused that even in the second group, by applying the fourth scenario, the barley crop is completely out of the cultivation pattern and a smaller amount of wheat and tomato cultivation area is replaced. It is suggested that in order to conserve resources and be more profitable, wheat, which is more profitable, should be replaced by barley. Technically, farmers were more specialized in wheat production than other crops. In all groups and scenarios, the level of cultivation and income of farmers decreased, which was more in the first group. It is suggested that the government prevent the reduction of gross returns by supporting farmers and reducing electricity costs.