Quantification of Health Burden Attributable to PM Emissions from Thermal Power Plants in Tehran: An Integrated AERMOD-GIS-AirQ+ Approach

Fatemeh Hassani1, Dr.Mostafa Panahi2*, Dr. Nabiollah Mansouri3, Dr.Yousef Rashidi4,
Dr.Saeed Motesaddi Zarandi 5

Ph.D. student, environmental health engineering, air pollution, Science and Research Branch University
Assoc. Professor of environmental economics, Science and Research Branch University (Correspondence officer*(
Professor environmental health engineering, air pollution, Science and Research Branch University
Assistant Professor of Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University
Professor of environmental health at Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences

Abstract
Introduction: Air pollution is one of the most important risk factors for mortality and morbidity in urban communities. Quantifying the health effects of specific pollution sources, particularly power plants, is essential for effective policymaking. Methodology: In this study, concentrations of particulate matter (PM) emitted from five thermal power plants in Tehran during 2015–2019 were simulated using the AERMOD dispersion model. Then, by integrating population layers in a Geographic Information System (GIS) and applying the AirQ+ software, health outcomes including premature mortality, lung cancer, acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), ischemic heart disease (IHD), and stroke were estimated. Findings: The distribution from the air pollution model shows that the maximum PM concentrations in the studied years were 17.5, 15.1, 23.3, 37, and 41.14 µg/m³, respectively. The highest value occurred in 2019 with a relative risk (RR) of 1.2 (95% CI: 1.13–1.28). However, the lowest RR was related to 2015 with a value of 1.05 (95% CI: 1.03–1.06). These RR values are significant and require action by decision-makers to reduce air pollution. On the other hand, lung cancer, with approximately 112.53 (RR=1.31, 95% CI) in 2019, had the highest rate compared to other diseases. The estimated attributable burden per 100,000 population indicates that lung cancer ranks first, followed by acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI) with approximately 102.76 (RR=1.27, 95% CI) in second place. The lowest rate was for lung cancer in 2019 in the range of 73.76 (RR=1.18, 95% CI). Conclusion: The substantial burden of diseases attributable to PM from power plants in Tehran underscores the urgent need for emission reduction measures, particularly through fuel switching and upgrading pollution control technologies. The integrated AERMOD-GIS-AirQ+ approach provides an efficient tool for quantitative health risk assessment and supports managerial decision-making.

Keywords. AERMOD, AirQ+, PM pollutant, power plant, relative risk.

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