Abstract
Given the high vulnerability of arid regions to climate change and human pressures, this study investigated the current and future habitat suitability of Teucrium orientale in Isfahan Province to provide a scientific basis for conservation planning in these environmentally stressed ecosystems. To achieve the objectives of the study, a comprehensive set of advanced species distribution modeling algorithms was implemented within an ensemble modeling framework. The models predicted species distribution using CHELSA bioclimatic variables in combination with topographic parameters. Future habitat changes were assessed using outputs from the GFDL-ESM4 and MRI-ESM2.0 climate models under the SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 emission scenarios, while also incorporating human pressure indices into the analysis. The results demonstrated that climatic factors, particularly temperature and precipitation, exert the strongest influence on the occurrence and distribution of this species. Simulations of future conditions further indicated that, under most scenarios, the extent of suitable habitats for the species is expected to decline, although the spatial pattern of these changes varies among climate models across the province. Among different regions, the western and southern parts of the province, especially high-elevation areas, showed greater potential for maintaining favorable environmental conditions in the future and were therefore identified as potential climatic refugia. However, spatial analysis revealed that a considerable proportion of these areas overlaps with regions experiencing substantial human activity, which may threaten the long-term stability of the remaining suitable habitats.Accordingly, effective land-use management, reduction of anthropogenic pressures, and targeted conservation of climatically stable areas could play a crucial role in preserving both the species and its habitats. The findings of this study also highlight the necessity of simultaneously considering climatic and human-related factors in conservation planning in order to support more scientifically robust decision-making processes.

EXTENDED ABSTRACT

Introduction

Climate change significantly alters ecosystem structures and plant distribution patterns, forcing species to shift their geographic ranges in response to changing temperature and precipitation regimes. Rangeland ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions are particularly susceptible to these shifts, as existing water limitations are often exacerbated by both climatic stress and anthropogenic factors like overgrazing and land-use change. Consequently, utilizing predictive modeling to assess future habitat suitability has become a crucial tool for identifying areas where species can survive, which is essential for developing effective conservation strategies. This specific study evaluates the current and projected habitat of Teucrium orientale in Isfahan Province to provide a scientific foundation for sustainable rangeland management and biodiversity preservation in environmentally stressed landscapes.

Materials and methods
In this study, 30 occurrence records of T. orientale were used to model its habitat suitability. Nineteen bioclimatic variables for three time periods (current conditions, 2050, and 2080) were obtained from the CHELSA database. These climatic data were derived from two general circulation models, GFDL ESM4 and MRI ESM2 0. Future projections were evaluated under three emission scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585. All variables were prepared at a high spatial resolution to improve modeling accuracy. In addition to climatic variables, physiographic factors including elevation, slope, and aspect were incorporated. Pearson’s correlation analysis was used to identify and remove highly collinear variables. This step helped reduce redundancy and improve model performance. After variable selection, ten predictors (nine bioclimatic variables and one physiographic variable) were retained. These predictors were used to run species distribution models using eight different algorithms. The outputs of these algorithms were combined within an ensemble modeling framework. Finally, the human pressure index map was overlaid with the predicted optimal habitat map of T. orientale to assess potential human impacts.


Results and discussion
The results indicated that climatic variables, particularly temperature and precipitation, play the most important role in determining the occurrence and distribution of this species. The net rate of change in habitat extent relative to current conditions was estimated to range from −24.21% to −89.84%. Simulations of future conditions suggested that under most scenarios the area of suitable habitats for this species will decline, although the spatial pattern of these changes varies across the province depending on the climate model used. Among different regions, the western and southern parts of the province, especially high elevation areas, demonstrated a greater capacity to maintain favorable environmental conditions in the future and were therefore identified as potential habitat refugia. However, spatial analysis revealed that a considerable portion of these areas overlaps with regions experiencing substantial human activities, which may pose challenges for the persistence of the remaining suitable habitats.

Conclusion
Effective land use management is vital for mitigating climate change impacts on vulnerable species and rangelands. By reducing anthropogenic pressures and protecting climatically stable refugia, conservationists can enhance ecosystem resilience and ensure long-term biodiversity. Achieving successful outcomes requires integrating ecological modeling into land-use planning and fostering collaboration between policymakers and local communities. Ultimately, robust conservation strategies must account for both climatic and human-related drivers to ensure scientifically informed and sustainable management.

EXTENDED ABSTRACT

Introduction

Climate change significantly alters ecosystem structures and plant distribution patterns, forcing species to shift their geographic ranges in response to changing temperature and precipitation regimes. Rangeland ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions are particularly susceptible to these shifts, as existing water limitations are often exacerbated by both climatic stress and anthropogenic factors like overgrazing and land-use change. Consequently, utilizing predictive modeling to assess future habitat suitability has become a crucial tool for identifying areas where species can survive, which is essential for developing effective conservation strategies. This specific study evaluates the current and projected habitat of Teucrium orientale in Isfahan Province to provide a scientific foundation for sustainable rangeland management and biodiversity preservation in environmentally stressed landscapes.

Materials and methods
In this study, 30 occurrence records of T. orientale were used to model its habitat suitability. Nineteen bioclimatic variables for three time periods (current conditions, 2050, and 2080) were obtained from the CHELSA database. These climatic data were derived from two general circulation models, GFDL ESM4 and MRI ESM2 0. Future projections were evaluated under three emission scenarios: SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585. All variables were prepared at a high spatial resolution to improve modeling accuracy. In addition to climatic variables, physiographic factors including elevation, slope, and aspect were incorporated. Pearson’s correlation analysis was used to identify and remove highly collinear variables. This step helped reduce redundancy and improve model performance. After variable selection, ten predictors (nine bioclimatic variables and one physiographic variable) were retained. These predictors were used to run species distribution models using eight different algorithms. The outputs of these algorithms were combined within an ensemble modeling framework. Finally, the human pressure index map was overlaid with the predicted optimal habitat map of T. orientale to assess potential human impacts.


Results and discussion
The results indicated that climatic variables, particularly temperature and precipitation, play the most important role in determining the occurrence and distribution of this species. The net rate of change in habitat extent relative to current conditions was estimated to range from −24.21% to −89.84%. Simulations of future conditions suggested that under most scenarios the area of suitable habitats for this species will decline, although the spatial pattern of these changes varies across the province depending on the climate model used. Among different regions, the western and southern parts of the province, especially high elevation areas, demonstrated a greater capacity to maintain favorable environmental conditions in the future and were therefore identified as potential habitat refugia. However, spatial analysis revealed that a considerable portion of these areas overlaps with regions experiencing substantial human activities, which may pose challenges for the persistence of the remaining suitable habitats.

Conclusion
Effective land use management is vital for mitigating climate change impacts on vulnerable species and rangelands. By reducing anthropogenic pressures and protecting climatically stable refugia, conservationists can enhance ecosystem resilience and ensure long-term biodiversity. Achieving successful outcomes requires integrating ecological modeling into land-use planning and fostering collaboration between policymakers and local communities. Ultimately, robust conservation strategies must account for both climatic and human-related drivers to ensure scientifically informed and sustainable management.