تعیین پهنه‌‌های مستعد توسعه مزارع خورشیدی در استان البرز با استفاده از تکنیک DEMATEL-ANP

Abstract
Based on the impacts of renewable energy in reducing greenhouse gases, determining the suitable zones and the environmental requirements is an undeniable necessity. The aim of this study is to determine the effective indicators for solar farms suitability assessment using the combined DEMATEL-ANP (DANP), GIS technique. Using a set of literature, 92 criteria were identified and 10 sub-criteria were selected based on the most frequent criteria. The effective sub-criteria such as solar radiation, dust, relative humidity, aspect and slope were obtained using DANP technique. Those criteria overlaid using the weighted linear combination method. The restricted areas were overlaid using Boolean method. The final map was suitable areas for solar farms zones in Alborz province. The results shows although there is a high potential for solar energy in Alborz province, but some limitations such as faults, agricultural and range lands, water bodies, man-made areas will reduce the suitability for solar farms. According to the results of this study, the western and southwestern areas in Alborz province, including Eshtehard, Savojbolagh and Nazarabad, have more suitability. Based on the results 1.235% of Alborz province have very low suitability, 8.730 %low, 3.639% moderate, and 10.228 % high suitability. Eshtehard township is suggested as one of the most suitable areas for this land use. The results obtained in this study will be significant for future land use plans and road maps toward integrated policy-making approaches.

Introduction
Energy as an infrastructure in increasing productivity (Beheshtifar et al., 2010) requires maximum use of resources, technology of optimal energy production and the use of clean technologies (Assari et al., 2018). Solar energy is one of the most accessible sources of renewable energy (Mohanty et al., 2017).
Solar energy is considered because of the lack of greenhouse gas emissions, conservation of natural resources and land reclamation, increasing regional independence, speed in electricity distribution, reducing costs and power transmission lines (Bahrami et al., 2013).
Iran is one of the suitable countries for using solar energy due to its location in the warm belt of the world (Sadat et al., 2015) in terms of solar energy intake and average annual sundial of more than 2900 hours per year (Sultan Mohammadi, 2012). Alborz province is facing increasing electricity consumption and lack of electricity generation capacity due to high population density. On the other hand, due to the favorable climatic conditions and the number of sunny days and hot and dry climate, as well as the existence of some low-yield lands in the south of the province, especially the two cities of Eshtehard and Nazarabad, and also according to the recommendations in the province land management documents, solar farms can be Hilli to supply energy resources to the province and neighboring provinces of Tehran and Qazvin. Therefore, the study is necessary to zoning areas prone to the development of solar farms.
Methodology
The steps of this study include 1) Objective determination 2) Criteria identification 3) Criteria screening 4) Sub-criteria prioritization and weighting using DANP method 5) Layer mapping in ArcGIS environment 6) Identification of Suitable Areas for Solar Farms. In order to analyze the data, the criteria were first identified and Screened.
Location indicators of solar farms were performed based on internal and external studies and were identified. Screening of criteria was performed according to the most frequent use of the criteria and a total of ten sub-criteria were determined. By studying 100 internal and external sources based on the most frequent criteria, about 77% of the sub-criteria were selected.
The technical, social and environmental indicators related to the problem that could be provided and prepared were selected. The main criteria include land management (land use), physical factors (slope, aspect, elevation) and land characteristics (temperature, sunshine hours, relative humidity, solar radiation, dust, rainfall).
A questionnaire was used to assess the interrelationships between the sub-criteria, which was completed by 32 specialists and experts. In order to map the layers in ArcGIS environment, the effective criteria obtained by DANP method along with their weight were determined and the relevant layers were created in ArcGIS environment. Layers related to Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) criteria for the whole of Iran were downloaded from www.solargis.com. Other layers were obtained from Alborz province land use planning studies in 2015. To combine the criteria, two methods of Boolean superposition for constraints and weighted linear combination for the main criteria were used.
The constraints of the constraint layers were applied using the Buffer function and classified using Boolean logic (zeros and ones), and the constrained areas were co-opted using the Union function. Due to the existence of gardens and agricultural lands, the land use layer was applied as a restriction and other land use classes were combined with weighted layers. By eliminating unsuitable areas with the Erase function, suitable zones for the construction of solar farms were prioritized. The constraint map, obtained from the overlap of boolean layers, shows that about 76.167% of the area of Alborz province, although it seems desirable in terms of radiation, etc., but has limitations as described in Table 6.

Conclusion
Of the total areas suitable for the development of solar farms in Alborz province, 6381 hectares had very low suitability, 45097 hectares had low suitability, 18800 hectares had medium suitability and 52835 hectares had high suitability. Among the cities of Alborz province, the most suitable areas for solar farms with an area of 22883 hectares were allocated to Eshtehard city and then Savojbolagh, Nazarabad, Karaj, Ferdis and Taleghan cities, respectively. The western and southwestern regions have suitable conditions for the construction of solar farms, while in the northern and eastern parts of the province due to the existence of a protected area, high elevation, low radiation and other limiting factors have been practically unsuitable.
Environmental factors are not compatible with the framework of many common location methods due to their special nature, ie their interrelationship with each other and other related non-environmental factors. ANP is therefore a practical tool for solving complex decision-making structures using the communication supermatrix. This method is one of the most appropriate assessment methods in the process of environmental location (Hosseinzadeh et al., 2012; Amiri, 2015). On the other hand, since this model is not able to show the effectiveness of the criteria, it should be possible to show the causal relationships of the criteria in environmental conditions that the DEMATEL technique can show these relationships.
The results indicate the ability of DANP technique to show the relationships-structure as well as the weight, dependence and feedback of the criteria, which is consistent with the studies of Hsu et al., 2013).
Among the priority planning projects of the province is the construction of solar farms in Eshtehard, Nazarabad, Hashtgerd and Garmadreh, which is consistent with the results obtained in this study. In the development of development plans for Taleghan city, a plan for the development of solar panels has been proposed, which according to the results of this research, Taleghan city does not have a good potential for the construction of solar farms. One of the priority areas for development in the planning of the province is the development of new energy production infrastructure in the center and south of Alborz province that The potential is good.