نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
1 استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری و روستایی - گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری و روستایی/ دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
2 دانشجوی دکترای تخصصی جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی
3 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
عنوان مقاله [English]
Despite there has been lots of efforts in many countries to reduce hazards, damages, costs and negative effects of various disasters are increasing. Therefore, the way to overcome consequence of this disasters is by having correct plans and utilizing new disaster management dimensions and methods. There are two approaches to properly manage different stages of disaster; which are the modern approach and the developmental approach. The developmental or so-called the community-based approach has been considered recently. In this approach the aim is to empower the individuals in community which will increase adaptability against harmful consequences of hazards; and by involving them in actions which will lead to risk reduction, we can prepare them to prevent, maintain and deal with disasters and return them to a stable situation. The modern approach, which it's organizational structure is hierarchical from top to bottom, the participation of stockholders in society are not considerable. Researches show that this approach fails in preparing and preventing from disasters due to the lack of participatory element and giving disproportionate responses to basic needs of society. At the same time, due to the implementation of unnecessary programs and ignorance of individual opinions in the community, it has led to dissatisfaction with the performance of responsible organizations.
The present study is formed in framework of structural hazardology perspective and its purpose is to evaluate the qualities of Ardabil city disaster management with emphasize on the structural approach. The special geographical, climatic, demographic and economic situation of Ardabil city has provided the basis for numerous disasters caused by various environmental hazards in this city. Due to features like centrality of province and it's political and economic importance, this city is categorized as a critical city.
The purpose of this study is practical, and descriptive- analytical in terms of method. This study is based on a mixed method (qualitative and quantitative). First the qualitative and then the qualitative data was collected and analyzed. Finally, both qualitative and quantitative analyses were interpreted. In this study by reviewing research literature and according to the theories of many scientists, the conceptual dimensions of structural approaches of disaster management were identified and presented. Then in order to prepare questioners and obtain proper tools to collect required data, through discussions with Delphi group, 43 components in 11 factors were identified for this research. In order to measure the effect of structural approach factors on the disaster management system of Ardabil city the factors and components extracted in previous stages were set as questionnaires in the forms of Likert scales. The statistical population of this study are officials working in governmental and non-governmental organizations in the field of disaster management in Ardabil. The sample size in this research are 105 people which were determined using Cohen's formula with 95% confidence level and effect size of 0.1. Questionnaires were distributed among officials using purposeful sampling. Filled questionnaires and data were used in smart pls and spss software to get structure modelling analysis. In this study Cronbach's alpha and composite reliability (CR) methods were used to assess the validity. Also the standard average variance extracted (AVE) method has been used to evaluate the convergent validity of the research, the results of which show high reliability and validity of research variables. Then in order to compare the statistics of factors affecting Ardabil disaster management system, Friedman test was carried out to evaluate the average rank of research factors.
To analyze the significance of the relationships between research factors and components of the urban crisis management system, second-order confirmatory factor analysis were used. To calculate the reliability of research components (observed variables), factor load tests have been used. The results show that all variables have a factor load higher than the minimum value of 0.7, which indicates the appropriate reliability of the variables. The results of structural equation modeling show that The factors identified for this research, explains the quality of urban disaster management with 0.613. The highest path coefficient of direct path is for management factors (0.733), living conditions (0.538) knowledge and equipment (0.528); and the lowest amount are related to laws and regulations (0.244) and citizen participation (0.302). Also, to evaluate the significance of the relationships between variables (the significance of the effect of independent variables on the dependent variable), value of t-statistic obtained from the output of the model has been used. In the direct path of the factors of management issues: storage, support system and planning (8.925, 6.625, 6.622, respectively) has the highest t-value, and the factors of citizen participation, laws and regulations (3.233, 3.306, respectively) has the lowest t-value assigned to them. In the indirect path, that is caused by the influence of factors on other factors, for example, the amount of t-value of influence of knowledge and equipment on citizen participation is equal to (23,160). Management issues on the living conditions of society (7.520), and laws and regulations on community member's safety is (2.217) and so on. In general, the results show that all factors have a good ability to measure the main structure of this research, which is the quality of urban disaster management system with emphasis on the structural approach. Because the amount of P-value for all factors is less than 0.05, the amount of T-value for all factors is greater than 1.96 and also the value of Beta (path coefficient) for all factors of research is greater than 0.1. The analyses of measurement models quality test show that the measuring tool has a good quality because the 1- SSE / SSO index for latent variable is positive. To evaluate the quality of the structural model, the GOF index has been used which with 0.408, indicates the desirability of this model. In the continuation of the research, Friedman test was carried out with the aim of ranking the factors affecting the quality of disaster management. Since the significance level of the test is less than 0.05; at the 95% confidence level, it can be said that the average rank of research factors and components are not equal. The results show that all factors identified for research have a positive effect on the disaster management system of Ardabil. Based on the analysis, the results indicate that the study of disaster management without considering concepts such as structure and system, cannot lead planners and managers to a true understanding of it. Therefore, in order to enhance the quality of the disaster management system, appropriate structures should be utilized in communities.